BP is projecting that the US will become energy self-sufficient in 2021 and maintains its position as the world’s largest liquids and natural gas producer. Here are some of the facts they revealed today:
· US energy production rises by 32% to 2035 while consumption expands by only 1%.
· Large declines in coal (-48%), oil (-12%) and nuclear (-12%) consumption are offset by growth in natural gas (+30%) and renewables (+194%).
· The large declines in oil and coal consumption drive US CO2 emissions from energy use to decline 13% by 2035 to levels not seen since 1986.
· Natural gas replaces oil as the leading fuel in US energy consumption around 2028 – increasing from 30% today to nearly 38% in 2035. As a result, oil’s share of the fuel mix falls from 35% to 31%, the lowest on record.
· Fossil fuels account for 79% of US energy demand in 2035, but down from today’s 85%, driven by more renewables in power generation, growing from 3% today to 9% in 2035.
· Energy consumed in power generation increases by 4% and by 2030 gas over takes coal as the dominant fuel source in power generation; its share increases from 22% to 32%.
· Energy consumed in transport falls by 13%. Oil remains the dominant fuel source, but its share falls from 95% today to 84% in 2035 as biofuels and natural gas capture 9% and 6% respectively of the share.
· US energy production as a share of consumption rises from 84% in 2013 to 109% in 2035.
· Rising US production of oil (+43%) and natural gas (+66%) outpace declines in coal (-30%). Oil output surpasses its previous high (1970) in 2015 while natural gas continues to rise from today’s record levels.
· US tight oil output grows by about 3 Mb/d to over 5 Mb/d in 2035. Shale gas production grows by 164% to 74 Bcf/d accounting for two-thirds of total gas production.
· With large increases in oil and natural gas production the country becomes a net exporter of natural gas for the first time by 2016 and a net oil exporter in 2031.
· The US share of global demand falls from 18% to 13% in 2035 as China rises from 22% to 26%, having surpassed the US in 2010 as the largest energy consumer.
· The US remains the world’s largest producer of natural gas, accounting for 23% in 2035. The US also becomes the world’s largest liquids producer (including biofuels) starting in 2013 and remains so through 2035.
· US energy intensity is 39% lower in 2035, falling faster than the global decline of 36%. Per capita energy use becomes the lowest on record by 2035.
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